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[Latest 2025] Will Pi Network’s Price Crash? A Data-Driven Analysis of the ‘Oversupply’ Theory | Lockup Mechanism & Future Prospects

Introduction: What Will Your Pi Be Worth in the Future? Hopes and Concerns Many People Share

Pi Network has garnered global attention as a cryptocurrency that can be easily mined on a smartphone. However, the question, “What will be the value of the Pi I’ve mined in the future?” is a common concern among many Pioneers (participants). Recently, in particular, there have been whispers that “Pi might flood the market, causing its price to crash.”

This article delves into the truth behind these concerns. We will objectively analyze the current supply, the “lockup” mechanism that holds the key to its price, and plausible future scenarios based on data, elevating your understanding of Pi Network to the next level.

For Those Who Want the Conclusion First: Three Key Points on Pi’s Future Price

For those short on time, here are the core takeaways of this article summarized in three points.

Supply Pressure is Real: Billions of Pi have already been issued, and it’s a fact that this could become future selling pressure.
Lockup is Key: However, the majority of this supply is isolated from the market through the “lockup” mechanism. This system acts as a price stabilizer.
Value Depends on Utility: The ultimate price depends not only on supply but also on how widely Pi is used in the real world (utility).
What is Pi Network’s “Current State” Anyway? Basic Knowledge Before Discussing Price

Before discussing Pi’s price, it’s crucial to accurately understand what stage Pi Network is currently in.

Enclosed Mainnet (Closed Mainnet)

Currently, Pi Network is in the “Enclosed Mainnet” phase. This means that while the blockchain itself is operational, its connection to external exchanges is intentionally restricted. In other words, Pi is not yet officially listed on any cryptocurrency exchange.

What is “IOU Trading”? The True Nature of Currently Observed Prices

So, what are the “Pi prices” seen on some exchanges or websites? In most cases, this is the trading price of an “IOU (I Owe You – a certificate of debt).” This represents the right to exchange for real Pi when the Open Mainnet is launched in the future, and it is not the official price of Pi. Currently, these IOUs are sometimes traded around $0.5 in the market, but it’s important to note that this is merely speculative movement in an unofficial market and does not reflect the project’s true value.

Migration: Moving Your Pi to Your ‘Real Account’

To actually use the Pi you’ve mined, a process called “Migration” is required. This can be understood as the official transfer of your app records (temporary account balance) to your wallet on the blockchain (your real account). So far, over 12 million users worldwide have completed this process.

Core Data: How Much Pi is in Circulation? Analyzing the Current Supply

Now, let’s look at the data regarding one of the most crucial factors affecting price: “supply.” While there’s information suggesting “7.4 billion Pi have been supplied,” this figure refers to a past point in time.

While the exact number is constantly changing, the important fact is that “billions of Pi have already been migrated to users’ wallets.” This vast amount represents the source of potential “selling pressure” that could enter the market in the future. This fact underpins the concern that “Pi is oversupplied and will crash.”

A Price Stabilizer? The Lockup Mechanism and its Significant Impact

When discussing supply, the “lockup” mechanism is absolutely indispensable. This can act as a powerful brake or accelerator for Pi’s price.

Purpose of Lockup

The primary purpose of lockup is to prevent a massive sell-off of Pi immediately after transitioning to the Open Mainnet (a stage where anyone can trade freely). It is a critically important price stabilization mechanism designed to artificially control market supply and buy time for the ecosystem to mature.

Mechanism Explained Simply

Lockup is set voluntarily by users. Its mechanism is similar to a bank’s “time deposit.”

By “locking” a portion of their held Pi (25% to 100%) for a certain period (2 weeks to 3 years), users are given an incentive: an increase in the amount of Pi they earn through mining.

Once a lockup is set, that Pi cannot be moved until the period expires. This irreversibility contributes to market stability.

Impact on Current Situation

Most notably, a significant portion of the Pi that has actually been migrated is prevented from circulating in the market for extended periods due to this lockup system. This significantly alleviates the aforementioned “billions of Pi selling pressure” at present.

What About Future Price? Two Possible Scenarios

Based on the information so far, let’s look at plausible scenarios for Pi’s future price from an objective perspective.

Scenario 1: Manifestation of Downward Pressure

A pessimistic scenario could occur as lockup periods (e.g., 1 year or 3 years) sequentially expire. If the amount of Pi released into the market increases and is not met by sufficient buying demand, the price could fall. If many users move to secure profits simultaneously, it would create significant selling pressure.

Scenario 2: Uplift Driven by Utility

The key to an optimistic scenario is the creation of real demand, or utility, where people “want to use Pi.” If more apps and stores allow purchases of goods and services with Pi, and Pi becomes deeply rooted in the community as a convenient payment method rather than just a speculative asset, buyers and users may outnumber sellers, leading to price stability or appreciation. Furthermore, if an official listing on a major exchange like Binance were to materialize, trustworthiness and liquidity would significantly increase, potentially becoming a major factor in pushing up the price.

Conclusion: How Should We Approach Pi Network’s Future?

The future value of Pi Network will be determined by the tug-of-war between the unavoidable selling pressure from “supply” and the two forces of “stabilization through lockup” and “demand creation through ecosystem growth.”

Instead of fluctuating with the short-term movements of unofficial IOU prices, it is most crucial to adopt a long-term perspective on how concretely the project’s vision of “building the world’s most widely used cryptocurrency ecosystem” will progress. This will be key to discerning Pi’s true value.

We hope this article has helped deepen your understanding of Pi Network.

Next Steps
Check official information: To identify reliable information, regularly check announcements within the official Pi Network app and the official blog.
Read the Whitepaper: To understand the project’s philosophy and detailed mechanisms, we recommend reviewing the Whitepaper from the official website.

The Potential of the Pi Network and Lockup: A New Era Driven by Demand

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Pi Network is known as a cryptocurrency project characterized by its ease of mining on mobile devices. The white paper clearly outlines the design for this currency to become exchangeable, and its handling on exchanges and elsewhere is anticipated with the official launch of the mainnet. This ease of use and future potential are among the main reasons why it is attracting people’s attention.

Relationship Between Lockup Period and Supply

Pi Network has a unique lockup system. Some users choose long-term locks, ranging from two weeks to a maximum of three years. Coins that are locked up do not circulate in the market during that period, limiting the supply. However, when the lockup period ends, there is a possibility that a large amount of Pi will be unlocked simultaneously. This is expected to cause a temporary surge in market supply. Such an increase in supply could be a factor pushing prices down.

How to lock up here
Pi Wallet’s New On-Chain Lockup: Boost Your Mining Rate!

Benefits of Lockup

  • During lockup, circulation is suppressed, making it easier to maintain relative scarcity
  • Encourages long-term holding, increasing investor/user commitment
  • Functions as part of a strategy aimed at stable market formation for the Pi Network

Impact of Supply and Demand Balance on Price

The basic law of price determination is the “balance of supply and demand.” In the case of Pi, the number of users is very large, in the tens of millions, and there is also a segment that actively continues mining. However, at the same time, there is a risk that many coins will flow into the circulating market when the lockup period ends. If the supply-demand balance is not maintained and there is an oversupply, it will lead to a price decrease.

On the other hand, Pi Network is exploring various use cases, and demand expands as the real demand for the coin increases. The network aims to expand its economic sphere by increasing opportunities for users to actually use Pi for payments and to purchase services and goods. If this progresses, not only will the supply of Pi in the market increase, but the number of buyers who want it will also increase, potentially creating a state of excess demand. If Pi is genuinely used in daily life, its price could rise based on its utility.

The Ecosystem Pi Aims For

  • Use in online payments and service purchases
  • Community-based project development and collaboration with DApps
  • Building a global marketplace

As this ecosystem grows, the demand for the currency itself increases, and a mechanism works to support the market price. If the project’s credibility improves and partnerships with major companies and the activation of the developer community progress, further demand growth can be expected.

Factors for Pi Network Price Prediction

There are many uncertain factors in price prediction. Especially since Pi Network has not yet officially circulated on the mainnet on a large scale, it is difficult to judge compared to existing cryptocurrencies. However, it is certain that many users are paying attention and there is a certain level of expectation. The main influencing factors are considered to be the following:

  • Trends in user numbers and activity
  • Lockup release timing and amount (scale of supply increase)
  • Appearance of projects/services that enhance Pi’s utility
  • Development plans and major partnerships by the Pi Core Team
  • Price correlation with other major cryptocurrencies and fluctuations in investor sentiment

Of course, such factors are adjusted and updated by following public information and community trends, so it is impossible to definitively state an absolute price. In a highly volatile overall cryptocurrency market, how Pi differentiates itself will be a turning point for the future.

Role and Outlook of the Community

The huge community supporting the Pi Network holds significant value as a foundation. In such community-driven projects, users actively disseminate information and spread the possibilities of Pi through social media and other channels. This creates a certain level of recognition and attention, serving as a factor that attracts a large number of potential users. If it were to be listed on a major exchange after the mainnet migration, investors and traders from all over the world could enter at once, potentially significantly increasing market liquidity.

Furthermore, Pi itself is not merely a speculative asset but is designed with the assumption of being used as a payment method and for service utilization in the real world. This point will be the pillar of the long-term growth scenario. By being usable for payments online and in physical stores, and by collaborating with other projects, it has the potential to acquire a broad user base beyond the scope of the cryptocurrency industry.

Future Expectations and Challenges

  • Improvement of user experience after the official mainnet launch
  • Strengthening security and ensuring scalability
  • Flexible response to global regulations
  • Measures to expand use cases within the ecosystem

If the community and development team work together to grow the project while clearing these challenges, the scenario of Pi Network approaching a new global standard may not be a dream.

Summary: Preparing for the Future of Pi Network

Pi Network holds potential for price increase due to its lockup system, large user base, and eagerness to expand utility. On the other hand, it also carries the risk of price decline due to oversupply at the time of mass lockup release, putting it in a phase where “expectations and challenges intersect.” Therefore, how the development team creates demand and how the community supports the project will be extremely important.

If real demand is established, it becomes handled on various exchanges, and its practical use as a payment method for people progresses, the long-term value of Pi has sufficient potential to increase. Conversely, if these do not progress at all and only large outflows into the market are prominent, a scenario where the market, supported only by expectations, plummets is also conceivable. In any case, ultimately, the price is determined by the actions and willingness to use of us users, and it is important to understand the project’s future vision and take action from a long-term perspective.

Going forward, be sure to regularly check official announcements and community information regarding Pi Network, and make your own investment/usage decisions after always gathering the latest information. As a project spanning several years, it is still in the developmental stage and carries risks along with great potential. While watching its growth process, expand the possibilities of the “future with Pi” that you envision.