On February 20, 2025, the Pi Network officially launched its long-awaited open mainnet after six years. This milestone made it possible to transfer Pi coins to external wallets and made listings on major exchanges and the deployment of decentralized applications (DApps) a reality. Boasting over 60 million users (Pioneers), this project is expected to have the potential to replicate historical successes like Bitcoin. However, numerous challenges have emerged, such as a sharp price drop immediately after launch, KYC issues, and criticisms of centralization, leading to increased skepticism. This article will analyze the technical characteristics, market reaction, price trends, and long-term outlook of the Pi Network in detail, exploring its future potential from multiple angles. Will it be the second coming of Bitcoin, or will it end in failure? We will provide a thorough explanation from the latest perspective in 2025.
What is Pi Network? Project Origins and Vision
Pi Network is a cryptocurrency project launched in 2019 by Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis and others from Stanford University. Unlike Proof-of-Work (PoW) like Bitcoin and Ethereum, it adopts the energy-efficient Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), enabling easy mining on smartphones. Its goal is to “make cryptocurrency accessible to everyone and build a global digital economy.” As of February 2025, it has gained over 60M+ users and its followers on X exceed 3.7 million, growing to a scale surpassing Ethereum. The launch of the open mainnet is a crucial step in realizing this vision.
Significance of the Open Mainnet: What Has Changed?
The open mainnet signifies Pi Network’s transition from a closed ecosystem to an open and interoperable blockchain. In the previous “Enclosed Mainnet” (launched in December 2021), transactions were limited internally, but with the launch of the open mainnet on February 20, 2025, at 8:00 UTC, the following transformations have been realized.
- External Connectivity: Pioneers can now move Pi coins to external wallets. For example, transfers to MetaMask and Trust Wallet are now allowed.
- Exchange Listings: OKX and Bitget started trading the Pi/USDT pair on February 20. With rumors of a Binance listing, liquidity has dramatically improved.
- DApp Deployment: Decentralized application development is accelerating, with marketplaces and games utilizing Pi scheduled to appear one after another.
- Node Opening: Anyone can now operate a node, marking the first step towards true decentralization.
Impact: This has evolved Pi from just a “free mining app” into a practical cryptocurrency. Adoption in e-commerce and P2P payments is anticipated.
Price Trends and Market Reaction: The Sharp Drop Immediately After Launch and Its Background
Immediately after the open mainnet launch, the Pi coin price showed dramatic fluctuations. While it plummeted from $2 at launch to $0.76 in just a few days, the 24-hour trading volume exceeded $100 million (as of February 22). This movement reflects the market sentiment where expectations and anxieties are intertwined.
Factors Behind the Price Drop: Three Core Reasons
- KYC Issues: While 19 million people have completed KYC verification, there are many unverified users, and Pioneers who failed to migrate their mining rewards increased selling pressure.
- Centralization Criticism: Nodes are managed by the Pi Core Team, raising questions about the stated principle of being “decentralized.” Bybit CEO Ben Zhou publicly expressed “fraud concerns” and refused to list it.
- Scandals and Trustworthiness: Past IOU trading scams and repeated Mainnet delays have become a trauma, making some investors skeptical. On X, there were also voices saying “shorts will be squeezed.”
Market Reaction: Both Positive and Negative Extremes
- Positive: Initial demand was strong, such as a 70% surge immediately after the OKX listing ($50→$90) before settling at $80. The community’s enthusiasm served as support.
- Negative: Increased volatility after the sharp drop led speculators to engage in short-term trading, giving an impression of lacking stability.
Data Perspective: According to CoinGecko’s assumption, the circulating supply is 550 million coins (unlocked portion) against a total supply of 100 billion coins. The current market cap is about $500 million, but the dilution risk upon full circulation is a concern.
Is the $10 Target Price Realistic? Possibilities and Obstacles
Some members of the Pi community dream of reaching “$10” and are engaging in heated discussions on social media. We will examine the basis and realism of this goal.
Factors for Rise: The Path to $10
- Large User Base: 60M+ Pioneers are an asset unmatched by other cryptocurrencies. If practicality is proven, demand will surge.
- Expanded Exchange Listings: If Binance or Coinbase list it, liquidity and credibility will improve, bringing $10+ within sight.
- Token Burn Strategy: Burn (destroy) unverified Pi to reduce supply. If the supply-demand balance improves, it will boost the price increase.
- E-commerce Adoption: If achievements at PiFest and rumors of partnership with Amazon materialize, real demand will push up the price.
Obstacles: The $10 Wall
- Supply Glut Risk: If the total supply of 100 billion coins fully circulates, a market cap of $100 billion (at $10) would be required. This is unrealistic compared to the current total crypto market cap of $3.3T.
- Competition: Alternatives like Solana and Polygon, which are fast and low-cost, exist, potentially diluting Pi’s uniqueness.
- Regulatory Pressure: Mobile mining and KYC are subject to scrutiny by authorities. Risk of stricter regulations in the US and China.
Prediction: Reaching $10 in the short term (within 2025) is difficult, but the $2-$5 range is realistic. In the long term, exceeding $10 is not a dream depending on adoption, but overcoming challenges is a prerequisite.
Long-Term Outlook: Second Coming of Bitcoin or a Failed Project?
While Pi Network aims for historical success like Bitcoin, the possibility of it ending in failure is also pointed out. We will analyze both scenarios.
Success Scenario: Replicating Bitcoin
- Accessibility: Mobile mining accelerates adoption in emerging countries. Support is expanding in India, Vietnam, and South Korea.
- Ecosystem Growth: Success of DApps and marketplaces makes Pi a “daily currency.” Goal of 100 apps by the end of 2025.
- Community Strength: The unity of 60M users is reminiscent of Bitcoin’s early grassroots movement.
Failure Scenario: An Anticlimactic End
- Loss of Trust: Users leave due to centralized operation and lack of transparency. X posts also mention “low selling pressure but concern about being forgotten.”
- Lack of Practicality: If DApps are disappointing, it will end up as a speculative asset and its value will approach zero.
- Defeat in Competition: Buried among major cryptocurrencies, it will only survive in a niche market.
Moderate Scenario: Even if explosive success like Bitcoin is difficult, there is a possibility of establishing a position as a mid-tier cryptocurrency (e.g., similar to XRP or ADA).
Future Challenges: The Path to Success
For Pi Network to succeed, it must overcome the following challenges.
- Improvement of KYC Process: Urgent need for relief measures and acceleration for unverified users. Increase verification rate to alleviate selling pressure.
- Transition to Decentralized Management: Open node operation to the community to dispel centralization criticism.
- Regulatory Compliance and Trust Improvement: Ensure legal transparency and gain the trust of governments and investors.
- Proof of Practicality: Establish concrete use cases in e-commerce and payments early on.
Suggestion: The Pi Core Team should enhance transparency through roadmap publication and AMA (Ask Me Anything).
Investment Scenarios: Price Predictions for 2025-2030
Based on market data and expert opinions, we present price scenarios for Pi coin. These are merely predictions and depend on various factors.
2025
- Optimistic: $5-$10 (with expanded exchange listings and accelerated adoption)
- Realistic: $1-$3 (after stabilization and volatility convergence)
- Pessimistic: Below $0.20 (due to loss of trust and selling rush)
2030
- Optimistic: $50-$100 (establishing status as a global currency)
- Realistic: $10-$20 (settling as a mid-tier cryptocurrency)
- Pessimistic: Below $1 (due to project stagnation)
Note: Compared to Bitcoin’s $96K (as of February 2025), Pi has significant growth potential, but the risks are proportional.
Conclusion: Predicting the Future of Pi Network
Pi Network has taken a significant step with the launch of its open mainnet. Its 60 million strong community and unique mobile mining approach provide a foundation worthy of dreaming of success like Bitcoin. However, if it fails to overcome hurdles such as KYC issues, centralization criticism, and proving practicality, the path to failure becomes visible. 2025 will be a crucial year, testing its transparency and execution capabilities. How do you see the future of Pi? Share your thoughts in the comments!
*This article is based on information as of February 23, 2025. Cryptocurrency investments involve volatility risks, so please make decisions at your own discretion.

