Introduction: What is Pi Network?

“Pi Network” has recently attracted significant attention as a new generation of cryptocurrency that can be easily “mined” using only a smartphone. It has the revolutionary feature of allowing anyone to easily participate through a smartphone app, without requiring expensive mining equipment or vast amounts of electricity like traditional cryptocurrencies.

However, there are swirling voices of both support and criticism regarding Pi Network. While some supporters expect that “Pi Coin could potentially be worth over $100 in the future,” those with a critical view predict that “the price will plummet as soon as the mainnet is fully operational.” Evaluations range widely, from the optimistic view that it will “become the next Bitcoin” to the harsh assessment that it is “nothing more than a worthless currency.”

This article objectively analyzes the future potential of Pi Network from various angles and explores whether Pi Coin is currently worth considering as an investment. We will examine both critical and positive opinions and provide information that Japanese investors can use as a reference when making decisions about Pi Network.

Why Some People Are Skeptical About the Value of Pi Coin

1. The Problem of an Excessively Large Supply Cap of 100 Billion Coins

The most common criticism against Pi Coin is its enormous supply cap. The total supply of Pi Coin is set at 100 billion coins, which is approximately 4761 times the supply cap of Bitcoin, which is 21 million coins.

Critics argue that “if the supply is too large, demand will not keep up, and there will be limited room for the price to rise.” It is true that, based on basic economic principles, prices tend to fall when supply is excessive.

However, the following counterarguments can be considered regarding this issue:

• Actual circulating supply is much lower than the supply cap: Currently, most Pi Coins are still locked in the hands of miners, and the actual amount traded on the market is much lower. The actual circulating supply will vary greatly depending on the Pi team’s release policy and the KYC (Know Your Customer) pass rate.
• Circulating supply and market demand are important: Ripple (XRP) also has a supply cap of 100 billion, yet it maintains a value of around $2 per coin. This indicates that not only the supply amount but also market demand and actual circulating supply are important factors in price formation.
• Possibility of token burning mechanism: In the future, mechanisms such as using a portion of transaction fees for token burning (reducing the supply) may be introduced. This could potentially lead to a gradual decrease in the market supply over time.

2. Concern about Increased Selling Pressure Due to Free Mining

Pi Coin has the characteristic of being able to be “mined” for free using a smartphone app. While this has the advantage of lowering the barrier to entry, there is a concern that significant selling pressure will occur once trading begins, based on the human psychology that “things obtained for free are easily let go.”

In fact, in the early stages when Pi Coin was listed on exchanges, many users who had been mining for free for years sold with the idea that “since it’s a coin obtained for free, it’s fine if I can cash out even a little.” Indeed, when Pi Coin was first listed on exchanges, it started at around $3.4 but then rapidly fell to around $0.6. This is believed to be primarily due to many early miners selling to take profits. Technical analysis shows that the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 45.2, indicating the market is in a neutral to slightly bearish state.

However, from a long-term perspective:

• Decreasing mining rate: In the design of the Pi Network, the mining speed of individual miners gradually decreases over time. This means that the amount of new Pi Coins supplied to the market will decrease over time.
• Alleviation of initial selling pressure: Once people who mined a large amount of Pi Coin in the early stages finish selling, the new supply to the market will stabilize, and selling pressure may gradually decrease.

3. Warnings from Government Agencies

In recent years, authorities in countries like Vietnam have officially issued warnings about the risks associated with Pi Network. Authorities emphasize the potential for Pi Network to be exploited for fraudulent activities, the risk of scams involving fake tokens aimed at stealing user data or money laundering. They also point out that “Pi has no practical use, and its value is self-assigned,” warning that many people may be misunderstanding its true value.

Furthermore, there has been an increase in fake websites and applications mimicking Pi Network, which pose a risk of stealing users’ wallet information or gaining unauthorized access to devices. Investors need to be fully aware of these security risks as well.

Exploring the Potential Value of Pi Network

1. Significance of the Mainnet Migration

Pi Network officially launched its open mainnet on February 20, 2025. This is a significant milestone following the successful migration of over 10.14 million accounts to the mainnet and the completion of the KYC (Know Your Customer) process by over 19 million users. It signifies the evolution from a closed test network to a full-fledged blockchain capable of actual transactions and transfers.

The migration to the mainnet indicates that Pi Coin has transitioned from being merely a “test phase currency” to a cryptocurrency with potential real value. This is an important indicator that the project has moved beyond the theoretical stage into the practical stage, and it is a point that investors should pay attention to.

Furthermore, Pi Network conducted the largest airdrop in cryptocurrency history, surpassing Uniswap in scale. However, since its launch, its price movement has been unstable, with the ADX (Average Directional Index) falling from 60.2 to 15, indicating a decrease in market momentum.

2. Learning from Past Success Stories

Looking back at the history of cryptocurrencies, there are several projects that were not valued in their early stages but later achieved great success:

“Investing is about investing in something that no one believes in at first, and selling when everyone comes to believe in it.”

• Bitcoin: When it was born in 2009, it was considered to have almost no value, and there is a famous anecdote where 10,000 Bitcoins were exchanged for two pizzas. Currently, Bitcoin is worth over $100,000.
• Binance Coin (BNB): At the time of its ICO (Initial Coin Offering) in 2017, it was around $0.1, but its value increased with the growth of the Binance exchange, exceeding $700 at its peak, achieving growth of over 7000 times.

Of course, not all projects achieve such success, but it shows that just because the value is low in the early stages does not mean there is no possibility of long-term success. No one can predict whether Pi Network will be the next major success story, but from the perspective of an investment opportunity in the early stages, it can be considered an interesting case.

3. Growing Ecosystem and Utility

One of the most important value propositions of Pi Network is that it is building a growing ecosystem, not just a token. Particularly noteworthy is the gradually expanding use for payments in various parts of the world:

• South Korea: The Pi community is particularly active in South Korea, and several stores have begun experimentally accepting payments in Pi Coin. However, these adoption cases are not yet mainstream, and the actual penetration is limited.
• Taiwan: In Taiwan, Pi Coin is starting to be used in small stores and peer-to-peer transactions.
• Vietnam: In Vietnam, restaurants and snack shops support Pi payments, and there are reports that it is even used for purchasing motorcycles and gold in some cases.
• Philippines: In the Philippines, some hotels, resorts, and clothing stores accept Pi payments.

While these are not yet mainstream, it is noteworthy that Pi Coin is gradually increasing its real-world use cases. Since the value of cryptocurrency is ultimately determined by its utility, the more it is adopted as an actual means of payment, the more its fundamental value is likely to increase.

Furthermore, the Pi team is promoting the development of “Pi Apps,” and there is a possibility of building an ecosystem of decentralized applications (DApps) in the future, similar to the BNB Chain or Ethereum. The development of such an ecosystem could significantly increase the demand and value of Pi Coin.

Why Now Is the Time to Pay Attention to Pi Coin

1. Early Stage Price Formation Period

Pi Coin is in the early stage immediately after the mainnet migration, and market recognition is in the process of being established. Generally, cryptocurrency projects often have low prices in the early stages, and their value may increase as the ecosystem and adoption rate expand.

The current price of Pi Coin may not fully reflect its potential long-term value. As the market gradually recognizes the utility and adoption rate of Pi Coin, the price may rise.

Specific price predictions by experts include analyses suggesting that Pi Coin could reach a maximum price of $100 in 2025 (average $65, minimum $30), a maximum price of $200 in 2026 (average $135, minimum $70), and a maximum price of $350 in 2030 (average $225, minimum $100). However, these predictions can fluctuate significantly depending on market conditions and adoption rates.

2. Ecosystem Building in Progress

Pi Network is currently in the process of building a comprehensive ecosystem. After the network opens, Pi Network’s core goals are to enhance ecosystem vitality, promote application implementation, and improve technical, product, business, and legal frameworks.

If real-world applications of Pi Coin increase, demand will increase, and the price may also rise. Building an ecosystem is a time-consuming process, but if successful, it has the potential to create significant value.

3. Investment Opportunity from a Long-Term Perspective

Many successful cryptocurrencies took several years to achieve widespread adoption. Bitcoin and Ethereum also had a long journey to reach their current value.

Pi Network is still under development, and considering it before the market fully recognizes Pi’s value may be meaningful for investors with a long-term perspective. There is a possibility to leverage the advantage of being an “early entrant.”

Investment Risks and Points to Consider

Of course, investing in Pi Coin also involves the following risks:

• Uncertainty of circulation policy: How the Pi team manages the circulating supply in the future, whether they release a large amount of coins at once or manage it cautiously, can significantly impact the price.
• Uncertainty of adoption rate: It is unclear how many people or businesses will actually start using Pi Coin. If the adoption rate is low, the value may be limited.
• Increased competition: The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, with new projects emerging one after another. It is important whether Pi Network can successfully differentiate itself from other competing projects and demonstrate its unique value.
• Regulatory risk: Regulations on virtual currencies in various countries around the world are constantly changing, and future regulatory changes could affect Pi Network. This point requires particular attention, especially given the strict regulations by the Financial Services Agency in Japan.
• Risk of fraud and misuse: There has been an increase in fake websites and apps mimicking Pi Network, which pose a risk of stealing users’ wallet information or distributing malware.
• Legal concerns: Legal concerns regarding Pi Network’s pyramid-like structure and uncertain legitimacy have also been pointed out among experts.

Conclusion: Is Pi Coin Worth Considering as an Investment?

Pi Network takes a different approach from traditional cryptocurrencies and aims to build a decentralized currency that is accessible to everyone. There are grounds for both critical and positive views, but ultimately, it depends on individual investment judgment.

For investors with a long-term perspective who can accept the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, Pi Coin may be worth considering. In particular, an approach of starting with a small investment and making decisions while observing the project’s development might be wise.

When considering as a Japanese investor, we recommend considering the following points:

• Invest with surplus funds and limit the amount to what you can afford to lose
• Maintain a long-term perspective and do not get overly excited or discouraged by short-term price fluctuations
• Regularly check the development status and adoption rate of Pi Network
• Include it only as a part of your portfolio as part of diversification
• Be cautious of scam sites and apps and only trust official information

Ultimately, whether Pi Network truly becomes a valuable ecosystem will depend on future development and adoption status. At this point, we recommend watching its development with interest but also with realistic expectations.

Always keep in mind that cryptocurrency investment is high-risk and make decisions carefully based on the principle of self-responsibility.